Normally I avoid driving home in rush hour traffic on Fridays, but yesterday I found myself unavoidably stuck in agonizing traffic, so I decided to double up on the agony and ponder the future of the local Democrat party.
Here's where we find ourselves. A former Democrat county councilman is Mayor, creating a vacancy in the County Council since the city elections are offset. By law, the county council itself can decide on who fills the vacancy.
The spot must be filled with another Democrat, and there appear to be 4 leading candidates: sitting Ward 3 Alderman Classie Hoyle, sitting Ward 4 Alderman Sheila Finlayson, county board of appeals member William Moulden and former Mayoral candidate Trudy McFall.
Fortunately for you, rush hour traffic on a Friday simulates the experience of psychotropic drugs, allowing me to think like a Democrat, and I'm happy to report that I'm now confident I can predict who will be the next county councilman from the 6th disctrict.
It will be Classie Hoyle, and here's why. The Republican majority on the council will not want a Democrat that would run a strong race in 2010. Of all the candidates, Hoyle would likely best satisfy that requirement since she already lost a county council race for this seat and she was on the wrong side of a nasty issue that came up during the election.
The real genius of this prediction is how everything plays out after Hoyle's appointment. I envision the Democrat bosses sitting in their gardens sipping Perrier and zinfandel, tickled that the Republican plan crafted in a smoke-filled back room will actually bring about exactly what the Dems want!
Hoyle's appointment to the county council only 14 days after being sworn in for another term as an Alderman leaves a vacancy on the city council for Ward 3. There would have to be a special election, which is not as good as an appointment by the central committee, but not to worry--it appears to be impossible for a non-Democrat to win in Ward 3. Guess which Democrat Cohen Transition Co-Chair and Primary Election Winner lives in Ward 3??? You got it. With residency requirements rendered irrelevant and financial troubles addressed, Zina Pierre wins the Ward 3 seat.
Moving right along, the only direction for Cohen is up, up, up! The bosses expect a victory from State Senator Astle over E.R. doctor and overall handsome fella Ron Elfenbein. Little do the voters know, it will be Astle's last election. Cohen won't want to run an actual campaign in District 30 because of the pesky Republican voters in Arnold and Edgewater. Too risky! Remember, we* need a sure thing. So, Astle resigns in 2013, creating a much more direct route for the start of the Senator Cohen dynasty. And wouldn't you know, Pierre will have completed 3.9 years of paying her dues as an Alderman, ready to receive full machine support for her run for Mayor.
(*The use of "we" and other stylistic writing in this post does not represent my personal wishes or beliefs, but rather is an attempt to put you, the reader, in the mindset of a Democrat strategist trying to ensure the burial of Republicans for 40 years.)
Ironically, the person who this works out worst for is Hoyle, who may or may not win reelection in 2010, and is left out of the long term plans.
If you find this post difficult to follow, just read it while in traffic on the Beltway and I assure you everything will be perfectly clear.
6 comments:
Your ability to think like a democratic evil genius is terrifying!
As a Dem, I can't resist pointing out a flaw in your otherwise thoughtful analysis. Mr. Mayor's close campaign staff person is running for 30. Boo ya. Figure that one out. Just when you thought you understood our evil ways!
Josh would have a hard time explaining leaving office early.
And I hear there is a forthcoming resolution to extend the current terms of the aldermen and mayor by one year to coincide with state and county elections, it will foul up this theory.
Brain,
I will try to make my prediction (without the benefit of mind altering traffic and fumes). Personally, I beleive that the County Council will NOT chose an elected city official - in part, because the city Repubs would make a plea to avoid going through another election. While the republican majority on the council will look for a weak Democrat, they will also look at other factors too. Regards.
Do the Republicans on the County Council give a rat's ass about the Annapolis GOP? My guess is, "no", you could hardly find a less relevant political organization locally.
Correction on my earlier snarky comment. Josh's campaign staffer is running for delegate, not senator. http://www.juddlegum.com/blog
I still think your predictions are incorrect though. But interesting nonetheless. Keep em coming.
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